Tourist experiences in 2050?

At the Future Forum Napoli (October 21-28 2014) I was invited to speak about future tourist experiences. I linked their development to the three drivers for the future of tourism identified by Ian Yeoman: the global distribution of wealth, the availability of resources and technology. For the characteristics of our 'experiences', I am following four developments with interest:

1. Commoditization or 'de-experiencing' as a result of declining wealth;
2. The way resources scarcity will affect the offer of 'experiences';
3. Tourist pressure on big cities;
4. The role mediahouses as Google may play in tourism marketing and distribution in the future. Will the internet be a neutral or a mediated platform? (See also my observations on Social media in 2030).

The Sharing Economy: a Sign of the Times, but What Sign?

One of the effects of the social internet and of mobile connectivity is that it creates a constant communication between supply and demand side. Not only can we shop 24/7, but we can also trade goods and services with other individuals, allowing us to share possessions and help others. What are the social origins of this wave of altruism, and where will it lead to?

Airbnb, Uber, but also leaving a dog with a host while you are on holiday, renting a bike or buying an apple pie from your neighbour: the internet has streamlined these interactions so that we now can use our resources more efficiently, we do no longer have to be obsessed with possessions and we can help our neighbours (for even more examples, see Forbes). In short, the sharing economy has unexpectedly put an end to the evil side of capitalism. So now, will we live happily ever after?

In his column "Don't believe the hype, the 'sharing economy' masks a failing economy", Evgeny Morozov gives a critical analysis of the phenomenon that, as the author states, has turned us into "perpetual hustlers": the rapid rise of the sharing economy is caused by "capitalism's newly found technological capability to convert every commodity that has been bought and removed from the market – temporarily becoming 'dead capital' of sorts – into a rentable object that never leaves the market at all." While the internet does help to more effectively distribute existing resources, and for many of us the trading system may alleviate the effects of the financial crisis, the sharing economy fights the symptoms, but not the disease.

According to Morozov: "Sensors, smartphones, apps: these are our generation's earplugs. That we no longer notice how thoroughly they banish anything that even smacks of politics from our lives is itself a telling sign: deafness – to injustice and inequality but, above all, to our own dire state of affairs – is the price we'll pay for this dose of immediate comfort".

Read the whole article Evgeny Morozov, "Don't believe the hype, the 'sharing economy' masks a failing economy", The Observer, 28 September 2014.

(Originally posted on the ETFI blog, http://etfi.eu/blog/2014/10/220604-the-sharing-economy-a-sign-of-the-times-but-what-sign).

The next 10 years. Trends and scenarios.

(Published in: Hotel Yearbook 2014)

Watching trends
How will the hospitality business evolve in the next 10 years? Businesses are hungry for information that helps them identify business opportunities and risks in advance. Trendwatchers address this need by watching their crystal balls for the latest updates on consumer likes and behaviour. However, these trends are hardly reliable for long-term strategic planning. They are too volatile and often caused by “self-inflicted” innovation.

Somehow, predicting a trend is like deciding what to have for dinner. When such a “trend” is detected, we decide to influence the near future. If a fashion designer states that “next year, red shoes are hot”, this is not an analysis but a directive statement. In other words, “trends” are commercial propositions rather than insight into the future.

This makes trends capricious and unpredictable by nature in the long run. Besides, were trends a trend themselves? In years without growth, more prudent consumers may slow down their trendiness. Yet, our businesses still face drastic changes we have to analyse and anticipate.

Trendwatching: my 2013 predictions

Just as others, I failed dramatically in my 2012 predictions. After visiting the Horecava Food Fair, I foresaw that ice cream would become hot, as well as the break through of the culinary bitter ball. This time I will stay on the safe side and just look at the non culinary world:

1. The Syrian civil war will affect the stability of Iran.
2. The U.S. successfully increases its energy production. All else remaining equal, prices will grow moderately. Geostrategical disruptions of energy supply though will lead to a further price hike.
3. Painful sacrifices of purchasing power, in combination with a still deepening recession, lead to rising tensions and social violence in Southern Europe. This will strengthen the traditional left and drive the right to the far right. 
4. Also elsewhere, austerity measures will lead back into recession. Bad times for consensus politics. In the Netherlands, the Conservative-Labour coalition will not make it to the end of the year.
5. The prestige and credibility of monarchies will crumble. In Europe, we may see one disappear. It is a logical result of growing transparency.
6. Coursera will affect universities as Napster has changed the music industry. Eventually we will all be able to learn from eminent scientists. Being in an actual class room will be like being dragged on to the stage to dance with Bruce Springsteen.
7. If electronic warfare has become fully effective, we may also see the digital equivalent of the Great Train Robbery.
8. There will be no Elfstedentocht ice skating tour. Not because of the whether; there would simply be too many people for the (up to now) required 15 cms. of ice.
9. Those who have high expectations of 2013 will be disappointed.
10. Barcelona will win whatever there is to win. At least got that one right.