The Scary Five. Scenarios for the Hospitality Industry

In 2013, Larry Mogelonsky published a thought-provoking future scenario of Hotels in 2023 as being totally dominated by Online Travel Agencies: the scenario depicts a situation in which a hotel general manager is fired by the OTA, along with his entire hotel, for insufficient market performance.

This could in fact be the outcome of a current power struggle in the hospitality market. But what else could happen if we look at a further evolution of the internet? Especially the role of the big media houses --Google, Amazon, Facebook, Youtube, Ebay--, which in view of their marketing power are already being referred to as the Scary Five?

This article (in Dutch) describes a scenario study currently being conducted about these developments. Drivers that have been identified are: net neutrality, the neutrality of search algorithms and the business model behind these companies acting as travel intermediaries.

Jeroen Oskam & Tjeerd Zandberg, "On-guest entertainment en de Scary Five. Toekomstscenario's voor de hotelindustrie". Hospitality Management 6 (december 2014), pp. 44-47.

A new state in Europe? Scenarios for Catalan self-determination

Historically, the political structure of Spain has been a source of conflict: peripheral regions as Catalonia and the Basque country have questioned the centralized power of the state and have claimed a higher level of decentralization in view of their distinct history, cultural identity and language. Recently, political and social discontent has escalated in Catalonia, leading to the unilateral announcement of a Catalan self-determination referendum for November 2014. Regardless of political or ethical preferences, it will be necessary to foresee the consequences of this process for Catalonia, Spain and elsewhere. A scenario approach focuses on possible outcomes of the current debate rather than on the arguments put forward in the controversy. Those in favour of Catalan independence have depicted a future for their country with a booming economy that will situate it at currently unattainable levels of prosperity. Opponents of secession argue that Catalonia will become a failed state. These future visions of an independent Catalonia can be described as scenarios, the underlying assumptions and plausibility of which can be analysed. EU membership and the effect of borders on international trade are identified as key variables. The alternative scenarios will also be crucial to evaluate the broader impact of “a new state in Europe”.

Article published in Futures, Volume 64, December 2014, Pages 51–60.
doi:10.1016/j.futures.2014.10.008.

Link: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328714001694.

Tourist experiences in 2050?

At the Future Forum Napoli (October 21-28 2014) I was invited to speak about future tourist experiences. I linked their development to the three drivers for the future of tourism identified by Ian Yeoman: the global distribution of wealth, the availability of resources and technology. For the characteristics of our 'experiences', I am following four developments with interest:

1. Commoditization or 'de-experiencing' as a result of declining wealth;
2. The way resources scarcity will affect the offer of 'experiences';
3. Tourist pressure on big cities;
4. The role mediahouses as Google may play in tourism marketing and distribution in the future. Will the internet be a neutral or a mediated platform? (See also my observations on Social media in 2030).

"They call me the plantation negro"

A few years back I was asked to look into traditional Caribbean song texts - the main research question being whether and to what extent these would show a different sexual morality. While analyzing these songs I found it hard to interpret the sometimes shocking racism of popular and apparently uncontroversial songs.

In particular:
"They call me the plantation negro,
for work to me is an enemy.
I leave working to the ox,
for God created work as a punishment".
(A mí me llaman el negrito del batey, / porque el trabajo para mí es un enemigo. / El trabajar yo se lo dejo todo al buey, / porque el trabajo lo hizo Dios como castigo).

The history of these songs led me to the following explanation:

"The censorship guy". Homage to Manuel L. Abellán

Manuel Abellán (Barcelona, 1938-2011) was a professor at the Universiteit van Amsterdam when in the late seventies, early years of the Spanish democracy, he managed to enter into the archives of the Francoist censorship and started his endeavour of reconstructing what had been purged and of identifying those who had been responsible - many of them still respected politicians, writers or scholars who had slipped through the nets of the Transition's imposed amnesia.
The following piece was published in the special issue of the electronic journal Represura, homage to Manuel. My title comes from one of the anecdotes of Manuel's research and his contacts with the former Francoist esteblishment when, after being introduced to former Franco minister Fraga the latter recognised him as "the censorship guy", to which Manuel replied "No, no, the censorship guy... that would be you".
Besides my professor, Manuel was an admired and beloved friend until he passed away in December 2011.

“El de la censura”
Jeroen Oskam

         Empecé a trabajar con Manuel Abellán en los años ochenta, en la Facultad de Letras de Amsterdam. Acababa de salir su primer gran estudio sobre la censura franquista. En Amsterdam daba clases, principalmente, sobre Historia Contemporánea de España, una asignatura cuyo atractivo era una visión coherente que vinculaba sucesos dentro pero también fuera de España con la evolución del pensamiento político y cultural – superestructura, decíamos hace tiempo –, de tal manera que no era raro que una clase sobre la Primera República terminara tratando de la actualidad política holandesa. Para el estudiante que yo era entonces, eran oasis de lucidez en un ambiente donde se confundía romanticismo y palabrería con erudición.