A new state in Europe? Scenarios for Catalan self-determination

Historically, the political structure of Spain has been a source of conflict: peripheral regions as Catalonia and the Basque country have questioned the centralized power of the state and have claimed a higher level of decentralization in view of their distinct history, cultural identity and language. Recently, political and social discontent has escalated in Catalonia, leading to the unilateral announcement of a Catalan self-determination referendum for November 2014. Regardless of political or ethical preferences, it will be necessary to foresee the consequences of this process for Catalonia, Spain and elsewhere. A scenario approach focuses on possible outcomes of the current debate rather than on the arguments put forward in the controversy. Those in favour of Catalan independence have depicted a future for their country with a booming economy that will situate it at currently unattainable levels of prosperity. Opponents of secession argue that Catalonia will become a failed state. These future visions of an independent Catalonia can be described as scenarios, the underlying assumptions and plausibility of which can be analysed. EU membership and the effect of borders on international trade are identified as key variables. The alternative scenarios will also be crucial to evaluate the broader impact of “a new state in Europe”.

Article published in Futures, Volume 64, December 2014, Pages 51–60.
doi:10.1016/j.futures.2014.10.008.

Link: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328714001694.

The disadvantage of peace and harmony (a Christmas thought)

I am color blind, but I did not discover that myself. You only know when other people tell you they see colors that you don't. It is the same as being stupid: you don't understand the things you cannot understand, so others have to tell you.

This principle shows why we have to rely on other opinions to understand the flaws of our system. As far as I am able to see, this is an important ideological problem of our contemporary world. Without alternative perspectives, we will be unable to see what happens, if it is rooted in our system.

The rational allocation of resources dogma

What would be the right price for a house? One of the most visible symptoms of the current crisis is the oversupply in housing. Demand is stable: housing is a basic necessity, and being evicted can drive people to suicide (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 and counting). This means that prices would have to drop to the level where buyers step in. They do not.

We do not have a mechanism that rationally measures the value of a house.

Youth exclusion

Youth exclusion is one of the main disastrous effects of the current crisis in the long run. The majority of Spaniards under 30 is currently unemployed, without counting those who are studying or otherwise unavailable for the labour market. This is up from structurally high youth unemployment.

The Spanish youth live at home with their parents. Just 45,6% of people between 18 and 34 are independent; no more than 21,5% of those under 29 and able to work are economically autonomous. The lack of perspective of employment or an independent home strengthens a cultural emphasis on family life: parents do not want their children to leave home at any cost and the youth do not want to leave home if that would mean losing quality of life.

According to El País, the youth mature sooner but they are more infantilicized. The repercussions of leaving this age group inactive are improductive investments in education, a lack of innovative impulse and a future work force that will be unprepared for their responsibilities.

This situation cannot be solved as long as four destructive factors coalesce:adverse economic circumstances, a speculative housing market, an obsolete education system and overprotective parents.

In a bizarre world ...

Now that the traditional newspaper business model has become obsolete, apparently internet newspapers' main challenge is to fill the space between the advertisements. It does not matter how, in fact there seems to be a distinction between 'low-cost' news and news with value which can be offered in the printed press or behind paid access.
The 'low-cost' or copy-paste news is identical in most newspapers, which are obviously generated automatically.

Especially popular are the sections of 'bizarre', 'weird' or 'fun' news. Is this genuine news, or pure fiction for marketing purposes? Take the following article:

Belgian couple headed for Lourdes arrives in ... Loudes
A Belgian couple that wanted to visit the image of the Virgin Mary in Lourdes, did not arrive in the pilgrimage site in the French Pyrenees, but in the town Loudes, according to the French magazine La Montagne. Loudes is situated in the also picturesque Haute-Loire and, like Lourdes, in France, but a few hundred kilometers from the place where Bernadette saw the Virgin Mary half a century ago.

The Belgians did have a GPS in their car. Unfortunately they had typed in "Loudes' instead of 'Lourdes'.

Source: HLN.be (http://www.hln.be/hln/nl/959/Bizar/article/detail/1472833/2012/07/19/Belgisch-koppel-op-weg-naar-Lourdes-belandt-in-Loudes.dhtml) and La Montagne (http://www.lamontagne.fr/auvergne/actualite/2012/07/19/en-route-pour-lourdes-un-couple-de-belges-se-retrouve-a-loudes-1224910.html).

Strange. Even if this were interesting or 'fun', who made this story? Did the Belgians call the newspaper, or a Loudes policeman? Was there a reporter involved, or do we just submit our weird and fun stories through the newspaper websites?

So far, 134.342 people liked this story on Facebook. In a bizarre world where we no longer understand who took our money, we stay informed through random weird stories, that may be true, or just fun.

The abandonment of democracy

In our history books we have studied how economic crises and abandoning democratic principles go hand in hand. It is fascinating and frightening to see, currently, how this mechanism is being set in motion.

Originally, democracy was the sovereignty of the will of the people. The people are free to decide and join forces to defend the common good by majority vote. But now there appears to be a footnote: the people may be wrong. Mistaken. EU Commissioner De Gucht raises the question in an interview with the Belgian Standaard: Greece remaining in the Euro-zone will only be possible "if the Greek people will be able to judge rationally in their elections. But they are desperate people... " (De Standaard).

If economic austerity is the only rational thing to do, why do we still have to vote? And why do people fail to see what is good for them? Is there an institution which prevails over democracy and which may judge what is rational and what is not?

And what can we do if the people give the wrong answer?

Politics as a profession

We may assume that many people are active in politics because of their convictions. On the other hand, it is not unthinkable that the work of politicians can be seen as a profession with attractive social and financial advantages. If this is the case for some, then it would not be hard to figure out the wisest political career planning: this is, obviously, in mainstream politics, either by obtaining a position in a political party that will hold power for the years to come, or if we have a political alternation by joining the party which is likely to replace the power party. In view of mobility, the latter option is probably even better.

Where will we find most corrupt activity? Political parties do not advocate corruption. Corruption may be linked to an attitude towards political power rather than to political convictions. Criminal activities will obviously be planned in an environment where their probability of success is greatest. This relation is illustrated by this map of political corruption in Spain:

Does corruption have an ideology?

I have been receiving more visits from the US lately, and I am afraid these visitors may have been misled by googling the combination of "public administration" and "corruption" (see Public administrations as corrupt welfare systems). This is of course not what I meant to say: I strongly believe in society offering a series of services all of society is supposed to benefit from, such as education, health care, a prison system, garbage trucks and fire brigades. Recent ideology is that private enterprise will organize these activities more efficiently. Two decades down the line, it is time to evaluate whether this dogma is actually true, and if so, why.

The other big question is: how do we make sure that these services are really managed around the social benefits that justify their existence, and not for other, e.g. personal benefits. The Soviet system was unable to solve this question. So is ours.

Public administrations as corrupt welfare systems

Why is it harder in some countries to cut back on their administrative bodies, normally in multiple layers, than on other public services that, at least at first sight, seem at least as important - say, education or health care? I believe these administrations historically have a different function. While the authoritarian dictatorships of Southern Europe failed to build welfare states, they did create corrupt substitutes through the control, assignment and withdrawal of civil servant positions. Now that Southern European democracies still have very limited social systems, political parties continue to rely on handing out public jobs to their supporters.

This is a corrupt alternative for the northern welfare states, and with no democratic protection against poverty in place, it is hard to see how this vicious circle of clientelism can be broken.

The Tipping-Point of Radicalization

Why would anyone put a tattoo in their face? If you get a tattoo to identify with a certain subculture, the surprise or shock-effect that the picture inspires is part of the motivation. The image will remain but the surprise will gradually fade, unless you keep drawing attention by the amount, nature and placement of new tattoos.

The growth of fascist movements is fed by the mobilization of social frustrations insufficiently covered by mainstream political parties. Their success – putting these frustrations on the political agenda – will therefore lead to a further radicalization. If there are no further frustrations to be uncovered, the fascist movement can only dissolve and become part of mainstream politics. The Dutch ‘Freedom Party’ PVV initially voiced anti-islamist sentiments invoking liberal principles; now that these thoughts have become part of parliamentary debate, the movement abandons these same principles and launches a website to incite overt anti-immigration anger (“Have you lost your job to a Pole, a Romanian or a Bulgarian?”).

There is no turning back. Once you have written hatred on your face, you can no longer approach a nice girl in the park and ask her out.

Future Scenarios for Spanish Tourism: Discussion and Wild Cards

At a recent conference on scenario planning for the tourist sector in Spain, I presented the following Key Uncertainties and Wild Cards:

	1. Empty stores are hardly an uncertainty anymore in cities in Northern Europe. Changing comsumer behaviour, combined with the current crisis, will undoubtedly have an impact on inner cities in Southern Europe and on their attractiveness to visitors.
	2. Climate changes may affect tourism to Southern Spain, especially water-intensive tourism (such as golf tourism). Water distribution may even become a source of increasing regional and violent conflict.
	3. A Euro-crisis will have an enormous impact on price sensitive mass tourism, as we find thoughout the Mediterranean. If a country were to abandon the Euro-zone, and would (re-) introduce its own currency, beach tourism would immediately start to flow to the lowest point. (Image: Post in German Bild Zeitung, TUI is already calculating in Drachmae).
	4. The Arab Spring was a protest generated by rising food prices, at least as much as an expression of the desire for freedom and civil rights. It is therefore not hard to imagine that the 'Arab Spring' may spread to (European) countries with a population facing similar problems. Greece? (Image: Fast Company, Let Them Eat … What? High Food Commodity Prices Could Cause A Global Revolution).
	5. Population Decline apparently has ceased to be just a steady (albeit dramatic) change in birth rates, and may be turning into a desastrous, crisis-driven exodus. Ironically, some superficial populism welcomes emigration as an answer to mass unemployment, whereas in fact mass emigration is a phenomenon indicating a steeper crisis curve. (Image: El País, 580.000 People are leaving Spain. Note: This is the size of the entire population of Málaga).
	6. Youth depending on Parents: this is actually a chicken-and-egg phenomenon. In the poorer south of Europe people have traditionally been obliged to live with their parents during their studies and early professional career, for economic reasons. The paradoxical consequence of this tradition is that young adults in the North learn to cope with adverse financial conditions, whereas their southern counterparts may postpone their autonomy until they are able to live under the same standards as before. Thus, they may have developed weaker defense mechanisms for times of crisis. (Image: blogpost Mummies’ boys – the number 1 variable for predicting Eurozone sovereign stress?!, M and G Investments).
	7. Gastronomy becomes unfashionable: This is a more specific, profession-related wild card. In recent decades, many businesses but also many educational institutes have focused heavily on high-end gastronomy, not necessarily a traditional phenomenon in Spain. It may well be that this "Gastronomy as Art" has been closely related to the years of (EU- and speculation-fed) opulence, and that it may therefore again be on the decline. Not that people will stop enjoying food; but they may no longer be interested in self-actualization through cooking.

Conference: Escenarios de futuro para el turismo, Centro Superior de Hostelería de Galicia, November 12, 2011.

Nuns

Conservatives refer to a ‘moral crisis’ when they see how changes in our social order affect human behaviour. This crisis would include phenomena as diverse as abortion or the London riots.

I see different signs of a moral crisis. This is the crisis of generations no longer capable of formulating collective answers to the current appearance of social contradictions; unable to imagine an alternative to the situations they question. Turning to guidelines which do not address contemporary questions – but escapist questions – is a sign of moral desolation. Clueless protests, young women becoming nuns and massive Catholic manifestations are all symptoms of such desolation.

We should be careful when drawing conclusions though. Is the number of nuns really growing, or is it just that we have become more interested in the phenomenon? Is the Catholic movement growing, or has it become more aggressive? We need data, not propaganda.

(Update, April 2012: Here are your data. Researchers at the University of Chicago find that the belief in God is in decline).

BBC News: 'The growing number of young women becoming nuns', October 24, 2011.