A new state in Europe? Scenarios for Catalan self-determination

Historically, the political structure of Spain has been a source of conflict: peripheral regions as Catalonia and the Basque country have questioned the centralized power of the state and have claimed a higher level of decentralization in view of their distinct history, cultural identity and language. Recently, political and social discontent has escalated in Catalonia, leading to the unilateral announcement of a Catalan self-determination referendum for November 2014. Regardless of political or ethical preferences, it will be necessary to foresee the consequences of this process for Catalonia, Spain and elsewhere. A scenario approach focuses on possible outcomes of the current debate rather than on the arguments put forward in the controversy. Those in favour of Catalan independence have depicted a future for their country with a booming economy that will situate it at currently unattainable levels of prosperity. Opponents of secession argue that Catalonia will become a failed state. These future visions of an independent Catalonia can be described as scenarios, the underlying assumptions and plausibility of which can be analysed. EU membership and the effect of borders on international trade are identified as key variables. The alternative scenarios will also be crucial to evaluate the broader impact of “a new state in Europe”.

Article published in Futures, Volume 64, December 2014, Pages 51–60.
doi:10.1016/j.futures.2014.10.008.

Link: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328714001694.

The Waddendijk as a "Leisure Landscape"

Does the northern Wadden coast, currently mostly a transit area for tourists on their way to the islands, have the potential for tourist and leisure development? The characteristics of a rural area bordering the World Heritage Wadden Sea would suggest that it does, but the challenge is to combine the attractiveness of a tourist area with the strict requirements of coastal protection.


Waddendijk Think Tank
In 2013 ETFI took the initiative of creating a 'Waddendijk think tank' with regional stakeholders representing the housing corporations, coastal protection, architecture, cultural festivals and tourist development. The conclusion was that any future development should respect not only coastal safety, but also the natural and cultural specifics of the area. Two ideas became key in the work of this think tank: the concept of Building with Nature, which seeks to integrate natural processes into the coastal protection system, and the idea of a Cultural Route with landscape art, leading to a kind of permanent Oerol festival on the continental shore. The Estuaire project in Nantes (France) would be a good example of a similar development.

Tourist experiences in 2050?

At the Future Forum Napoli (October 21-28 2014) I was invited to speak about future tourist experiences. I linked their development to the three drivers for the future of tourism identified by Ian Yeoman: the global distribution of wealth, the availability of resources and technology. For the characteristics of our 'experiences', I am following four developments with interest:

1. Commoditization or 'de-experiencing' as a result of declining wealth;
2. The way resources scarcity will affect the offer of 'experiences';
3. Tourist pressure on big cities;
4. The role mediahouses as Google may play in tourism marketing and distribution in the future. Will the internet be a neutral or a mediated platform? (See also my observations on Social media in 2030).

The Sharing Economy: a Sign of the Times, but What Sign?

One of the effects of the social internet and of mobile connectivity is that it creates a constant communication between supply and demand side. Not only can we shop 24/7, but we can also trade goods and services with other individuals, allowing us to share possessions and help others. What are the social origins of this wave of altruism, and where will it lead to?

Airbnb, Uber, but also leaving a dog with a host while you are on holiday, renting a bike or buying an apple pie from your neighbour: the internet has streamlined these interactions so that we now can use our resources more efficiently, we do no longer have to be obsessed with possessions and we can help our neighbours (for even more examples, see Forbes). In short, the sharing economy has unexpectedly put an end to the evil side of capitalism. So now, will we live happily ever after?

In his column "Don't believe the hype, the 'sharing economy' masks a failing economy", Evgeny Morozov gives a critical analysis of the phenomenon that, as the author states, has turned us into "perpetual hustlers": the rapid rise of the sharing economy is caused by "capitalism's newly found technological capability to convert every commodity that has been bought and removed from the market – temporarily becoming 'dead capital' of sorts – into a rentable object that never leaves the market at all." While the internet does help to more effectively distribute existing resources, and for many of us the trading system may alleviate the effects of the financial crisis, the sharing economy fights the symptoms, but not the disease.

According to Morozov: "Sensors, smartphones, apps: these are our generation's earplugs. That we no longer notice how thoroughly they banish anything that even smacks of politics from our lives is itself a telling sign: deafness – to injustice and inequality but, above all, to our own dire state of affairs – is the price we'll pay for this dose of immediate comfort".

Read the whole article Evgeny Morozov, "Don't believe the hype, the 'sharing economy' masks a failing economy", The Observer, 28 September 2014.

(Originally posted on the ETFI blog, http://etfi.eu/blog/2014/10/220604-the-sharing-economy-a-sign-of-the-times-but-what-sign).

Who were the Maidan snipers?

In the propaganda war surrounding the Ukraine conflict it is hard to find any reliable information. However, when sources as little suspect of belonging to Putin's propaganda machine as Estonian minister Urmas Paet or the German ARD television allude to the presence of snipers different than the officially accused Berkut policemen, this becomes alarming. Paet and Catherine Ashton "discussed a conspiracy theory that blamed the killing of civilian protesters in the Ukrainian capital, Kiev, on the opposition rather than the ousted government" earlier this month. On April 10, the German news show Monitor reported that shots had been fired not only by policemen loyal to Yanukovich, who claimed to have fired only at armed protesters, but also from the Ukraine hotel and other locations behind the protesters. From these positions, both policemen and protesters were targeted. Despite the indications for the involvement of an unidentified and professional sniper-unit, State Prosecutor and Svoboda militant Oleg Machnizki has closed the investigation (full transcript, in German, after the break).

Why did we go to war?

One hundred years later, we are still discussing what caused the First World War, and who is to blame. What we should have learned is that while isolated incidents and the reaction to these in itself may have seemed rational and understandable, the sum of these incidents became a catastrophic leap into death and destruction. With this hindsight we could have avoided a similar chain of events one century later.

In the escalation of tensions in Ukraine, we have seen the following critical incidents:

1. Interference in domestic affairs
If Ukraine was a sovereign state, an intervention in its internal affairs could only have been justified in the case of severe violations of human rights. But what was under discussion were the country's international relations. The EU support for protests against an elected president was a casus belli - not for Russia but for Ukraine.

The next 10 years. Trends and scenarios.

(Published in: Hotel Yearbook 2014)

Watching trends
How will the hospitality business evolve in the next 10 years? Businesses are hungry for information that helps them identify business opportunities and risks in advance. Trendwatchers address this need by watching their crystal balls for the latest updates on consumer likes and behaviour. However, these trends are hardly reliable for long-term strategic planning. They are too volatile and often caused by “self-inflicted” innovation.

Somehow, predicting a trend is like deciding what to have for dinner. When such a “trend” is detected, we decide to influence the near future. If a fashion designer states that “next year, red shoes are hot”, this is not an analysis but a directive statement. In other words, “trends” are commercial propositions rather than insight into the future.

This makes trends capricious and unpredictable by nature in the long run. Besides, were trends a trend themselves? In years without growth, more prudent consumers may slow down their trendiness. Yet, our businesses still face drastic changes we have to analyse and anticipate.