Saturday, December 29, 2012

Trendwatching: my 2013 predictions

Just as others, I failed dramatically in my 2012 predictions. After visiting the Horecava Food Fair, I foresaw that ice cream would become hot, as well as the break through of the culinary bitter ball. This time I will stay on the safe side and just look at the non culinary world:

  1. The Syrian civil war will affect the stability of Iran.
  2. The U.S. successfully increases its energy production. All else remaining equal, prices will grow moderately. Geostrategical disruptions of energy supply though will lead to a further price hike.
  3. Painful sacrifices of purchasing power, in combination with a still deepening recession, lead to rising tensions and social violence in Southern Europe. This will strengthen the traditional left and drive the right to the far right. 
  4. Also elsewhere, austerity measures will lead back into recession. Bad times for consensus politics. In the Netherlands, the Conservative-Labour coalition will not make it to the end of the year.
  5. The prestige and credibility of monarchies will crumble. In Europe, we may see one disappear. It is a logical result of growing transparency.
  6. Coursera will affect universities as Napster has changed the music industry. Eventually we will all be able to learn from eminent scientists. Being in an actual class room will be like being dragged on to the stage to dance with Bruce Springsteen.
  7. If electronic warfare has become fully effective, we may also see the digital equivalent of the Great Train Robbery.
  8. There will be no Elfstedentocht ice skating tour. Not because of the whether; there would simply be too many people for the (up to now) required 15 cms. of ice.
  9. Those who have high expectations of 2013 will be disappointed.
  10. Barcelona will win whatever there is to win. At least got that one right.

2 comments:

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