Incoming Tourism

Interview about an ETFI-research project on possibilities for incoming tourism in the north of the Netherlands:

“Fryslan needs to anticipate shifts in consumer behaviour .“ Frisian tourism entrepreneurs should be prepared for Spanish tourists, watersport companies need to offer a variety of products and the world heritage site the Waddensea must have a visitor centre.
All these recommendations are the outcomes of a scenario research towards trends in the field of tourism within the next five years. According to Oskam, entrepreneurs should be aware of shifts in consumer behaviour. This will allow entrepreneurs to anticipate trends.
More articles on the scenario reasearch can be found here.


See also: blog.etfi.eu

Youth exclusion

Youth exclusion is one of the main disastrous effects of the current crisis in the long run. The majority of Spaniards under 30 is currently unemployed, without counting those who are studying or otherwise unavailable for the labour market. This is up from structurally high youth unemployment.

The Spanish youth live at home with their parents. Just 45,6% of people between 18 and 34 are independent; no more than 21,5% of those under 29 and able to work are economically autonomous. The lack of perspective of employment or an independent home strengthens a cultural emphasis on family life: parents do not want their children to leave home at any cost and the youth do not want to leave home if that would mean losing quality of life.

According to El País, the youth mature sooner but they are more infantilicized. The repercussions of leaving this age group inactive are improductive investments in education, a lack of innovative impulse and a future work force that will be unprepared for their responsibilities.

This situation cannot be solved as long as four destructive factors coalesce:adverse economic circumstances, a speculative housing market, an obsolete education system and overprotective parents.

What is scenario planning?

Explanatory video on scenario planning (in Dutch, English subtitles).

In a bizarre world ...

Now that the traditional newspaper business model has become obsolete, apparently internet newspapers' main challenge is to fill the space between the advertisements. It does not matter how, in fact there seems to be a distinction between 'low-cost' news and news with value which can be offered in the printed press or behind paid access.
The 'low-cost' or copy-paste news is identical in most newspapers, which are obviously generated automatically.

Especially popular are the sections of 'bizarre', 'weird' or 'fun' news. Is this genuine news, or pure fiction for marketing purposes? Take the following article:

Belgian couple headed for Lourdes arrives in ... Loudes
A Belgian couple that wanted to visit the image of the Virgin Mary in Lourdes, did not arrive in the pilgrimage site in the French Pyrenees, but in the town Loudes, according to the French magazine La Montagne. Loudes is situated in the also picturesque Haute-Loire and, like Lourdes, in France, but a few hundred kilometers from the place where Bernadette saw the Virgin Mary half a century ago.

The Belgians did have a GPS in their car. Unfortunately they had typed in "Loudes' instead of 'Lourdes'.

Source: HLN.be (http://www.hln.be/hln/nl/959/Bizar/article/detail/1472833/2012/07/19/Belgisch-koppel-op-weg-naar-Lourdes-belandt-in-Loudes.dhtml) and La Montagne (http://www.lamontagne.fr/auvergne/actualite/2012/07/19/en-route-pour-lourdes-un-couple-de-belges-se-retrouve-a-loudes-1224910.html).

Strange. Even if this were interesting or 'fun', who made this story? Did the Belgians call the newspaper, or a Loudes policeman? Was there a reporter involved, or do we just submit our weird and fun stories through the newspaper websites?

So far, 134.342 people liked this story on Facebook. In a bizarre world where we no longer understand who took our money, we stay informed through random weird stories, that may be true, or just fun.

Top ranking for Barcelona-Maastricht-Oxford Hospitality Master

 

El Innovative Hospitality Management (MSc) de TSI-Turismo Sant Ignasi se sitúa por segundo año consecutivo entre los 5 mejores másters de turismo y hotelería de España, según el ranking publicado hoy por el periódico El Mundo.

La publicación, que reúne a los mejores 250 másters de España, destaca del IHM "su elevada tasa de inserción laboral, y las cadenas hoteleras colaboradoras, como Marriott, Hilton o Ritz-Carlton".

El Innovative Hospitality Management (MSc) es un master universitario que se realiza conjuntamente entre TSI - Turismo Sant Ignasi y la Hotel Management School Maastrich (Maastricht, Países Bajos). El programa también realiza algunos contenidos en colaboración con Oxford Brookes University Business School (Oxford, Inglaterra).

Está dirigido a graduados con un interés particular en los aspectos creativos y multiculturales de la industria hotelera y tiene como puntos fuertes la innovación, la hospitalidad, y la gestión y dirección de empresas hoteleras.

El ranking de El Mundo se realiza a partir de un análisis exhaustivo de los programas, teniendo en cuenta 26 criterios clasificados en categorías tales como la demanda, los recursos humanos, planes de estudio, los resultados generales y recursos materiales. Además, tiene en cuenta las instituciones colaboradoras, el número y el prestigio de los miembros del profesorado, programa académico, relación calidad-precio, tutorías personalizadas para los estudiantes y los resultados obtenidos por los estudiantes.

Para realizar el ranking,  "El Mundo" ha tenido en cuenta las opiniones de más de 500 expertos de los profesores, antiguos alumnos y empresas colaboradoras.

http://www.tsi.url.edu/es/noticias/el_innovative_hospitality_management_de_nuevo_entre_los_5_mejores_masters_en_hoteleria-264

The abandonment of democracy

In our history books we have studied how economic crises and abandoning democratic principles go hand in hand. It is fascinating and frightening to see, currently, how this mechanism is being set in motion.

Originally, democracy was the sovereignty of the will of the people. The people are free to decide and join forces to defend the common good by majority vote. But now there appears to be a footnote: the people may be wrong. Mistaken. EU Commissioner De Gucht raises the question in an interview with the Belgian Standaard: Greece remaining in the Euro-zone will only be possible "if the Greek people will be able to judge rationally in their elections. But they are desperate people... " (De Standaard).

If economic austerity is the only rational thing to do, why do we still have to vote? And why do people fail to see what is good for them? Is there an institution which prevails over democracy and which may judge what is rational and what is not?

And what can we do if the people give the wrong answer?

Politics as a profession

We may assume that many people are active in politics because of their convictions. On the other hand, it is not unthinkable that the work of politicians can be seen as a profession with attractive social and financial advantages. If this is the case for some, then it would not be hard to figure out the wisest political career planning: this is, obviously, in mainstream politics, either by obtaining a position in a political party that will hold power for the years to come, or if we have a political alternation by joining the party which is likely to replace the power party. In view of mobility, the latter option is probably even better.

Where will we find most corrupt activity? Political parties do not advocate corruption. Corruption may be linked to an attitude towards political power rather than to political convictions. Criminal activities will obviously be planned in an environment where their probability of success is greatest. This relation is illustrated by this map of political corruption in Spain:

Does corruption have an ideology?

I have been receiving more visits from the US lately, and I am afraid these visitors may have been misled by googling the combination of "public administration" and "corruption" (see Public administrations as corrupt welfare systems). This is of course not what I meant to say: I strongly believe in society offering a series of services all of society is supposed to benefit from, such as education, health care, a prison system, garbage trucks and fire brigades. Recent ideology is that private enterprise will organize these activities more efficiently. Two decades down the line, it is time to evaluate whether this dogma is actually true, and if so, why.

The other big question is: how do we make sure that these services are really managed around the social benefits that justify their existence, and not for other, e.g. personal benefits. The Soviet system was unable to solve this question. So is ours.

The end of teaching as we know it

View more presentations from Alvaro González-Alorda

Public administrations as corrupt welfare systems

Why is it harder in some countries to cut back on their administrative bodies, normally in multiple layers, than on other public services that, at least at first sight, seem at least as important - say, education or health care? I believe these administrations historically have a different function. While the authoritarian dictatorships of Southern Europe failed to build welfare states, they did create corrupt substitutes through the control, assignment and withdrawal of civil servant positions. Now that Southern European democracies still have very limited social systems, political parties continue to rely on handing out public jobs to their supporters.

This is a corrupt alternative for the northern welfare states, and with no democratic protection against poverty in place, it is hard to see how this vicious circle of clientelism can be broken.

The Tipping-Point of Radicalization

Why would anyone put a tattoo in their face? If you get a tattoo to identify with a certain subculture, the surprise or shock-effect that the picture inspires is part of the motivation. The image will remain but the surprise will gradually fade, unless you keep drawing attention by the amount, nature and placement of new tattoos.

The growth of fascist movements is fed by the mobilization of social frustrations insufficiently covered by mainstream political parties. Their success – putting these frustrations on the political agenda – will therefore lead to a further radicalization. If there are no further frustrations to be uncovered, the fascist movement can only dissolve and become part of mainstream politics. The Dutch ‘Freedom Party’ PVV initially voiced anti-islamist sentiments invoking liberal principles; now that these thoughts have become part of parliamentary debate, the movement abandons these same principles and launches a website to incite overt anti-immigration anger (“Have you lost your job to a Pole, a Romanian or a Bulgarian?”).

There is no turning back. Once you have written hatred on your face, you can no longer approach a nice girl in the park and ask her out.

A 10 against fascism

A Bachelor dissertation read at Tilburg University, identifying right-wing PVV as a contemporary fascist party, was awarded the highest grade (10). This unusual qualification made national press and has sparked controversy.

The debate about the underlying hypothesis has become a political one. Unlike others, I do not object to linking PVV to fascism, and I believe it is extremely relevant to study how the far right will evolve in the next decade. I am hesitant though about the academic perfection attributed to the paper and about the publicity that was sought. The grade seems to be a statement. It means no favour to the student, nor to science, nor to a political cause.

It reminds me of a curious judgement I received when I was a student. I wrote a small paper about a movement inside Italian fascism. I analysed its ideological origins, and I could use the findings in later work on the effects of censorship. My supervisor (at the Dept. of Contemporary History) looked puzzled and asked: "But where does it say that you are against fascism?"

I still wonder whether medical students are also required to state that they are against cancer.

Future Scenarios for Spanish Tourism: Discussion and Wild Cards

At a recent conference on scenario planning for the tourist sector in Spain, I presented the following Key Uncertainties and Wild Cards:

	1. Empty stores are hardly an uncertainty anymore in cities in Northern Europe. Changing comsumer behaviour, combined with the current crisis, will undoubtedly have an impact on inner cities in Southern Europe and on their attractiveness to visitors.
	2. Climate changes may affect tourism to Southern Spain, especially water-intensive tourism (such as golf tourism). Water distribution may even become a source of increasing regional and violent conflict.
	3. A Euro-crisis will have an enormous impact on price sensitive mass tourism, as we find thoughout the Mediterranean. If a country were to abandon the Euro-zone, and would (re-) introduce its own currency, beach tourism would immediately start to flow to the lowest point. (Image: Post in German Bild Zeitung, TUI is already calculating in Drachmae).
	4. The Arab Spring was a protest generated by rising food prices, at least as much as an expression of the desire for freedom and civil rights. It is therefore not hard to imagine that the 'Arab Spring' may spread to (European) countries with a population facing similar problems. Greece? (Image: Fast Company, Let Them Eat … What? High Food Commodity Prices Could Cause A Global Revolution).
	5. Population Decline apparently has ceased to be just a steady (albeit dramatic) change in birth rates, and may be turning into a desastrous, crisis-driven exodus. Ironically, some superficial populism welcomes emigration as an answer to mass unemployment, whereas in fact mass emigration is a phenomenon indicating a steeper crisis curve. (Image: El País, 580.000 People are leaving Spain. Note: This is the size of the entire population of Málaga).
	6. Youth depending on Parents: this is actually a chicken-and-egg phenomenon. In the poorer south of Europe people have traditionally been obliged to live with their parents during their studies and early professional career, for economic reasons. The paradoxical consequence of this tradition is that young adults in the North learn to cope with adverse financial conditions, whereas their southern counterparts may postpone their autonomy until they are able to live under the same standards as before. Thus, they may have developed weaker defense mechanisms for times of crisis. (Image: blogpost Mummies’ boys – the number 1 variable for predicting Eurozone sovereign stress?!, M and G Investments).
	7. Gastronomy becomes unfashionable: This is a more specific, profession-related wild card. In recent decades, many businesses but also many educational institutes have focused heavily on high-end gastronomy, not necessarily a traditional phenomenon in Spain. It may well be that this "Gastronomy as Art" has been closely related to the years of (EU- and speculation-fed) opulence, and that it may therefore again be on the decline. Not that people will stop enjoying food; but they may no longer be interested in self-actualization through cooking.

Conference: Escenarios de futuro para el turismo, Centro Superior de Hostelería de Galicia, November 12, 2011.

Where is the trip going? (Wohin geht die Reise?)

"On May 17th 2011 Jeroen Oskam and Gaby Seemann were invited by the project group 'Netzwerk Toekomst' to take a glimpse into the future. Oskam not just highlighted the importance of being prepared for the future but elaborated why the ETFI rather works with uncertain factors and scenario planning than with common forecasts. Ongoing developments such as a decline in out of home expenditure and increase in investments in energy and living rather than food and tourism shape tomorrow's tourism. A decrease in income and increasing costs for tourism due to higher energy costs will change the tourism pattern. Moreover, in house gaming and online communities such as Facebook and Twitter make the current and future generation of children rather stay inside and not meet or play outside which will drastically change their way of travelling and leisure behaviour in the future."

From the Ems-Dollard Regio Magazine:

Open publication - Free publishing - More etfi

International Tourism Futures Conference

Panel discussion: the Future of Tourism and the Future of Tourism Education

From November 2-5, 2011, the European Tourism Futures Institute organized the 'Tourism Futures' conference at Stenden University, as a meeting for international futurologists, tourism researchers and professionals with the objective to find and discuss answers to the situations tourism will face in the next decades. Conference topics were the hotel of the future, creative cities/city-sumers, slow marketing and the global shift of political power. As keynotes the programme featured Márcio Favilla, as Director of Competitiveness at UNWTO and dr. Katharina Grünberg, from the scenario team at Shell, about their organisations’ tourism future study and scenario studies in general, respectively. Ari Björkqvist presented Haaga-Helia’s project on the future of hotels and conference centers, while Ian Yeoman looked at the hotel of the future from the perspective of the future of sleep.

The international conference was combined with the regionally oriented Fryske Toerisme Kongresdei.

Conference website: http://www.etfi.eu/conference.
Conference presentations can be downloaded from http://www.etfi.eu/conference/programme .

Stenden university claims a leading role in Tourism Research

Article in Science Guide, November 16, 2011:

16 november 2011 - Stenden Hogeschool wil een leidende rol in het Europees toerisme onderzoek. Op het Future Tourism Congres (FTG) is besloten een grote samenwerking aan te gaan met verschillende grote Europese universiteiten. Belangrijkste doel is het gelijktrekken van de dataverzameling in Europa.

Nuns

Conservatives refer to a ‘moral crisis’ when they see how changes in our social order affect human behaviour. This crisis would include phenomena as diverse as abortion or the London riots.

I see different signs of a moral crisis. This is the crisis of generations no longer capable of formulating collective answers to the current appearance of social contradictions; unable to imagine an alternative to the situations they question. Turning to guidelines which do not address contemporary questions – but escapist questions – is a sign of moral desolation. Clueless protests, young women becoming nuns and massive Catholic manifestations are all symptoms of such desolation.

We should be careful when drawing conclusions though. Is the number of nuns really growing, or is it just that we have become more interested in the phenomenon? Is the Catholic movement growing, or has it become more aggressive? We need data, not propaganda.

(Update, April 2012: Here are your data. Researchers at the University of Chicago find that the belief in God is in decline).

BBC News: 'The growing number of young women becoming nuns', October 24, 2011.

Don’t give them fish – rent them fishing rods. The ethics of private education

Cardinal Rouco Varela and Archbishop Manuel Ureña preside the Opening of the Academic Year at a private university (2011)

Spain’s development of parallel public and private university systems is not similar to trends in higher education elsewhere. The ownership, motivation and goals of private universities determine their approach:

• A strict regulation imposes on all universities a strict design for their study plans, with elements considered obsolete elsewhere. Universities cannot differentiate themselves in content.
• Private universities do not distinguish themselves through their faculty, on the contrary: due to differences in salary and other conditions (job security), there is a constant leakage of experienced teaching staff to public universities.
• A year’s tuition in public universities will add up to € 1.000 as opposed to close to € 10.000 in private universities. Now, what is the incentive for a candidate student for choosing a private rather than a public university, if the product is similar? In many cases, the motivation will be the minimum entry grades.
• Despite the quality of their student intake, private universities aim for a maximum drop-out rate of 2%, for obvious reasons. The percentage of students abandoning their studies may be closer to 25 elsewhere.

Private universities in general offer similar programmes, with less qualified faculty, to wealthy students that have hardly been selected on academic criteria – and will be allowed to complete their studies without exams becoming effectively selective. The degrees awarded by these universities constitute a certification of upper class origin, rather than an academic qualification.

Spain’s private universities are normally non-profit organisations promoted by the Catholic Church. An auto-financing socialisation tool.

Future or Futures?

(Opening of the Academic Year 2011-12)



Today I have been asked to give an extremely short presentation about the European Tourism Futures Institute. I believe that time will be sufficient to concentrate only on one single letter in the name of the institute: that will be the S that turns future into a plural futures.
When this name was first launched, we were asked whether this was a mistake: can you speak of multiple futures, while everyone knows there is just one future? This is a deliberate choice of our institute, that is crucial for our research strategy.

Leeuwarden in search of tomorrow's tourist

Newspaper article (Leeuwarder Courant, April 28, 2011) on a workshop organized by Stenden's European Tourism Futures Institute and delivered by dr. Ian Yeoman, at the local City Hall: